In our discussions with potential investors, we are often asked what our current best ideas are. This question is, of course, not unique to us. It has to be the most often asked question of money managers. Accordingly, managers spend a lot of time talking and evangelizing...
We have been closely following for a few years now China’s shrinking labor cost advantage. China has many other tailwinds, but this two decade-plus labor cost arbitrage is the cornerstone of the Chinese Miracle. Losing this advantage, even at the margin, will inevitably change the trajectory of growth in the country. On the flip side, this relative change will make Turkey, Brazil, Mexico and others more competitive in manufacturing, which will have big benefits for workers in these countries.
Internet-driven social media continues to revolutionize how we connect (and re-connect) with others. Most importantly to us from a business perspective, social media changes distribution. Content producers can more effectively target, reach, and interact with identified high-value niches, threatening current content distributors in the process. Google+ is expanding what is possible on its social network.
Mr. Gates provides an update on his work in health, poverty, and education.
We are not invested in Starbucks (and are not actively considering it), but find the recent announcement that the chain will be serving beer, wine and premium food offerings in select locations notable. It will be interesting to see whether this experiment improves traffic and builds on Starbucks’ reputation as a gathering place, or instead undermines its carefully nurtured ethos.
We believe we are just at the cusp of rethinking the traditional definitions of lectures and textbooks. They should be more integrated and accessible to each other or perhaps indistinguishable eventually. Wikipedia, YouTube, the finest lecturers, graphic artists, animators, filmmakers, writers, software designers, and others will all have a role to play, and the outcome could be a radically better and cheaper way to educate than the current system.
This Wired Q&A with journalist Robert Neuwirth explores what he calls System D: the world’s informal/black market/underground economy that is largely untaxed, unlicensed, and unregulated. He argues that both its size and importance are enormous.
Dan Pallotta makes a case against the increasing use of business jargon. We agree with him.
Two scientists at the Max Planck Institute in Berlin have been studying behavior influenced by probabilities, and their findings are particularly interesting when it comes to the dynamics of crowds.
Manufacturers have spent years building lean global supply chains, but have underestimated the resulting opportunity costs. Natural disasters are showing them just how delicate these networks really are.
Hayek’s approach says: Let us pierce the veil of aggregates and look at the distortive effects on relative prices and relative output produced by boom-time credit expansions.
A new survey of research on money and happiness attempts to explain how the human mind is surprisingly poor at working out what will make us happy.
In the wake of regime reform in Myanmar, change is taking place in the capital city of Yangon. The signs of middle-class life are becoming more evident throughout the area.
Wireless providers are buying and building today's equivalent of new textile looms. Providing data has a high fixed cost and a low marginal cost. We expect all of this to be good for consumers and bad for market participants.
We are always amused by the attention given to decimal places in various macro-economic measures given the impossibility of their accuracy in the United States, much less in places like China.
Battery technology has substantially lagged Moore's Law, and this deficiency has held back all sorts of applications from electric cars to tablets to solar panels.
HTML5 technology is the fifth generation of the programming language that is a foundation of the Web. It updates the way elements like text, graphics, photos and animation work inside Web browsers, leading to results that are more like software programs than Web pages.
It will be interesting to see if China's leadership can thread this housing needle, particularly with social pressures from both sides of the debate. History says that they will struggle to accomplish a soft landing if a bubble does in fact exist.
An interesting article posted this week in The Telegraph discussed how man’s ancestors mated with Neanderthals and other related hominids during human evolution.
We are constantly reminded how critical it is to understand the limitations inherent in financial accounting and the risks that lurk behind the ways individual companies are applying the rules.
Africa is an emerging market for status brands. Because per capita income is still low, marketers have to focus on high income earners while also keeping some products (and their price points) accessible for those with more average income.
If you are not familiar with it, Bayes’ Theorem can be summarized in a simple, qualitative formula: “Initial Beliefs + Recent Objective Data = A New and Improved Belief.”
The competitive dynamics and technology enablement of online education continue to take shape, with University of North Carolina’s Kenan-Flagler as the first top-20 U.S. business school to offer an online program that itself says is fully equivalent to and indistinct from its traditional, bricks-and-mortar M.B.A. degrees.
We are extremely intrigued by Sal Khan and the online Khan Academy he has created. In this video, he discusses how and why he created the series of educational videos offering complete curricula in math and other subjects.
Scientists study the effect of underlying patterns in music.
Greece and its people are caught between a rock and a hard place. Through debt default/restructuring and austerity, the country is basically hitting the reset button by rolling back jobs, wages, and health and retirement benefits that were unsustainable. Operating with a margin of safety (in a government’s case, avoiding long-term spending that is beyond its means) prevents terrible outcomes in situations well beyond investing.
Former Apple retailing executive Ron Johnson, who recently took over as CEO of J.C. Penney, has launched an aggressive plan to completely change the way his department store does business. This strategy will differentiate it from many, if not most, of its competitors. We will follow this transformation closely to see which parts succeed and which parts fail.
How does one best balance the benefits that teams provide for idea generation with the advantages that privacy and solitude afford for productivity?
A little stress is helpful for peak performance, but too much can literally shut down the brain.
Systems are frequently much more complicated than people typically assume on first glance. In this case, thank goodness. As investors, however, we try to be especially watchful of this psychological misjudgment.
Edward Burns blogs about the opportunities that electronic distribution presents for artists. His personal example illustrates how the declining costs of distribution due to technology are going to accrue to the content creator at the expense of gatekeepers (while also leveling the financial playing field among artists).
Fortune’s interview with Stephen Quinn, Wal-Mart’s Chief Marketing Officer, discusses a new approach to 'the customer' at the world’s largest retailer. We continue to be struck by the strength and quality of managers in Wal-Mart's organization.
Kanzunori Asada reflects on his enlightening Van Gogh observation. Was Van Gogh partially colorblind?
This is a funny video that illustrates how people are influenced by the behavior of those around them.
In the letter from our 2011 annual report, we briefly discussed the past occurrences—and potential current risk—of social unrest in China. This article highlights a current case study of Chinese villagers reacting strongly to ongoing mistreatment by their local government.
It seems that we’re complete suckers for the illusion of certainty and the seeming unlikelihood of the unthinkable, even though financial and economic history is one long string of crises. This time always seems different, until it turns out not to be.
We’ve all experienced it: The frustration of entering a room and forgetting what we were going to do. Or get. Or find.
The happenings in the Eurozone increase the risk of a real-life exploration of the application of the Dodd-Frank rules on a collapsing bank. A simulation put together by The Economist raises some interesting questions.
We enjoy studying Nathan Myhnold's thinking, and this column explores an idea that is an integral piece of our investment process.
eMarketer ran an article on particular in-store vs. online shopping habits that highlights some challenges and opportunities that retailers are facing as consumers use of the internet, particularly when enabled by a smartphone, continues to change how they shop.
A recent study at the Mayo Clinic suggests there may be a way to slow down the aging process. With the research project in its very early stages there is no way to know where it may lead, but count us as interested observers given the potential impact that developments like this could have on medical care costs.
Experts have a poor understanding of uncertainty. Usually, this manifests itself in the form of overconfidence: experts underestimate the likelihood that their predictions might be wrong.
It will be interesting over time to watch how online shopping impacts everyday grocery shopping and how that changes the economic model (for example, capital expenditure levels and mix, labor costs, and advertising budgets) of the relevant retailers.
A true Cinderella story for a man who, due to his extensive research, chose to challenge a core assumption of science.
We couldn’t resist sharing this story about an entire fake Apple store in China. We are not shocked, but it is still incredible.
We continue to look for investment opportunities in China, but remain very careful because of our ongoing concerns around rule of law and property rights (which makes it much harder to reliably avoid permanent impairments of capital, in line with our investment philosophy).
In our past letters and blog entries on education driven topics, we have focused more on the Internet’s impact on how teachers organize content and how students then consume that content. In particular, we have noted how the Internet improves the learning process through the deliverability and wider-spread availability of content.
Anyone following the degree of US household leverage could see that the trend was unsustainable and housing prices were a bubble. Accepted wisdom holds that the key to turning around an economy in a recession is to get consumers borrowing and consuming again. While that is certainly true in the short-run, we prefer equity financing in the long-run and do not believe that nations get rich from ever-increasing leverage.
This quote from Matt Mullenweg illustrates the ‘creative destruction’ phenomenon that is at the heart of a free market/capitalist system.
Probability and statistics were not necessary to evolution, and we find the human shortcut answer to many questions can vary widely from the correct mathematical answer. This difference can lead to a variety of bad decisions and inefficiencies in the market. So we try to focus on and be very aware of these problems in the hopes of doing a little better than average when they arise in real world investing.
The rapid expansion of China’s Internet community portends significant cultural, economic, and political changes, all of which will likely complicate central planning efforts.
The rise of price transparency in retail is occurring too fast for some traditional retailers to adequately prepare and react. Target is using its size and clout to make an interesting appeal to vendors in its supply chain. Programs like “exclusive” products/SKUs are good ideas, but they won't be able to resist the coming tide.
“Fallor ergo sum.” St. Augustine’s memorable quote translates to “I err, therefore I am.” This TED talk by Kathryn Schulz, a self-proclaimed "Wrongologist,” finds inspiration in this idea of not just admitting, but rather embracing, our unavoidable fallibility.
The complexity of the human body continues to challenge scientists. We expect this reality to endure.
This post on Motley Fool is well worth a study if you are interested in retail.
We have no opinion on Netflix as an investment, but we are very interested in watching the destabilizing effects of on demand viewing on the traditionally delivered TV market. The world is still in the nascent stages of the destruction of great businesses by the Internet to the benefit of consumers.
We suspect this is another important step forward in broadening access to higher education and simultaneously lowering the cost of distribution significantly. Consumers around the world will be much better off as a result of this dislocation over the next decade and beyond. MIT seems to be the world leader.
As part of the Facing History and Ourselves New York Benefit Dinner, Charlie Rose interviewed Seth Klarman at Chelsea Piers. As usual, Klarman had interesting things to say.
Chick-fil-A consistently has one of the most outstanding customer service experiences of any business. They have been thoughtful about creating a culture that promotes this ethic and this video is one example of how they are creatively using media for internal communications.
While Eurozone technocrats - with the help of central banks from across the world - continue to grasp for ways to save the Euro, British banks and regulators are preparing for a different outcome.
India suspended its decision to allow overseas retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to open supermarkets, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s efforts to boost foreign investment and end a policy paralysis.
The confidence that had sustained China's property boom is evaporating, causing a double whammy for growth: fading demand overseas and at home at the same time.
Government pension plans certainly look like an impending disaster. Many governments have made promises that they will ultimately be unable to keep.
Richard's former boss Paul Jones spoke about lessons learned from his newspaper days and a potential nearer-term opportunity.
The post-secondary education model continues to be challenged, with colleges and universities beginning to fully recognize the difficulties ahead (which have been further highlighted by the increasing public discourse about student loan debt and the potential problem it presents to graduates, particularly in tough job markets).
Awesome article from Bloomberg Business Week on how Apple uses decoys, anchoring, and obscurity to make you think those shiny aluminum toys are a great deal.
Coke's push in the United States to have more product size offerings at various price points is something that bottlers have been doing for quite a while in Latin America.
This is an ‘oldie but goldie’ article on value investing from Fortune that was published in 1995. In many ways, it harkens back to Warren Buffett’s article entitled “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville” that was published in 1984...
As we discussed in the Annual Report dated September 30, 2010, the Internet is transforming the public education system and we will not know the extent of this for years to come.
China’s labor cost advantage continues to deteriorate against other more-developed, low-cost production regions like Mexico. As the wage gap narrows, other factors become more relevant in the procurement and plant location decision-making process for businesses focused on manufacturing.
Search is still in in its infancy, and lots of innovation will come over the next couple of decades. Google might be the best situated to lead this innovation, but we feel that most people are more confident in the company's "moat" than probability warrants. This article about Google's Knowledge Graph gives some indication about where search can go.
Warren Buffett makes his case for long-term equity investing and the right way to think about risk. We share the same biases.
Driven by a consumer culture that prizes excellence, the Japanese have begun creating some of the finest American denim, French cuisine, and Italian espresso in the world. As captured by the various vignettes in this story, this specialization in foreign wares marks an interesting twist for a country known for its pride in tradition (and at times accused of insularity).
We almost always comprehend data better in a graphical form. These charts display the actions of the various central banks in a way that easily shows the magnitude of their interventions.
Without weighing in on the ethics involved, we continue to believe that the low costs (money, time, trouble, etc.) of piracy will dramatically reduce profits for a variety of industries. The record industry is just the beginning. Books, movies, higher education, and many more will be radically changed over the coming decades. Cory Doctorow gives some good explanations as to why trying to prevent this piracy will be so difficult.
We have recently explored a glaring shortcoming of many current financial models: their inability to appropriately account for the frequency of "outliers." In their Financial Modelers' Manifesto, Emanuel Derman and Paul Wilmott take a step back from this particular focus and explore financial modeling from a broader, more holistic perspective. Their takeaways are insightful, and we think they are spot on.
Photographer Kien Lam quit his job, packed a bag, grabbed his camera, and traveled the world. This video captures what he saw in 17 countries over 343 days.
The debate rages on in the diet industry about the best way to control weight. Fads come and go, but – this study maintains – the key idea behind maintaining a healthy weight is basic and well-established: balance calories consumed against calories expended.
Mandela continues to be an exemplary statesman for South Africa and the rest of the African continent.
The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
We recently wrote about the Physics-rattling finding at CERN on the Swiss/French border. Neutrinos that were sent 450 miles through the earth appeared to travel faster than the speed of light, which would invalidate Einstein’s Theory of Relativity. Whether this actually happened or was some measurement error is an ongoing topic of debate, which is likely to continue for awhile.
In tougher economic times, people are finding creative ways to earn a living.
Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.
A new study indicates that cooking substantially increases the energy gained from meat, leading to elevations in body mass that are not attributable to differences in food intake or activity levels.
For the first time the Indian government is allowing overseas companies to own as much as 51 percent of retailers selling more than one brand.
European leaders continue to indicate there’s no reason to prepare for the unthinkable: the breakup of the euro zone. But some big banks are no longer so sure.
Latin America’s middle class is steadily growing, while the poorest class is diminishing. The story of Peru’s largest apparel maker, Topitop, perfectly illustrates this trend.
An interesting article in the November issue of the Bloomberg Markets magazine touches on a variety of topics of interest, including branding, management styles and approaches, and international business.
This ongoing court battle in Russia is an enthralling, complex story.
This story on Morgan Stanley’s farming venture on the steppes of Ukraine is an instructive example of what can happen when investors step outside the boundaries of their circle of competence.
A new supertower will be opened this weekend in the Chinese village Huaxi, a communist model community with a registered population of just 2,000 “farmers.”
Jim Grant has an interesting take on Sylvia Nasar’s new book, "Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius."
The first mover advantage by itself is rarely enough to protect market share, margins, etc.). It’ll be interesting to watch this new industry come of age.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Sub-Saharan Africa will be the fastest-growing region in the world, after developing Asia, this year and in 2012.
