C&B Notes

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About C&B Notes

The purpose of C&B Notes is to pass along ideas, concepts, stories, and information that are informing and influencing our worldview and thought processes. We strongly believe in Charlie Munger's approach to investing, which requires a broad study of disparate disciplines to create the "latticework of mental models" that is required to make sound investment decisions. To this end, some items—with our lead-in reflections—will be more directly germane to our investments, but they all influence in some indirect way our own "latticework."

Topics

Overconfidence is the Disease of the Expert

In our discussions with potential investors, we are often asked what our current best ideas are. This question is, of course, not unique to us. It has to be the most often asked question of money managers. Accordingly, managers spend a lot of time talking and evangelizing...

China's Export Pain is Other Countries’ Gains

We have been closely following for a few years now China’s shrinking labor cost advantage. China has many other tailwinds, but this two decade-plus labor cost arbitrage is the cornerstone of the Chinese Miracle. Losing this advantage, even at the margin, will inevitably change the trajectory of growth in the country. On the flip side, this relative change will make Turkey, Brazil, Mexico and others more competitive in manufacturing, which will have big benefits for workers in these countries.

Google+ Hangouts and TV Broadcasting

Internet-driven social media continues to revolutionize how we connect (and re-connect) with others. Most importantly to us from a business perspective, social media changes distribution. Content producers can more effectively target, reach, and interact with identified high-value niches, threatening current content distributors in the process. Google+ is expanding what is possible on its social network.

Bill Gates' Annual Letter

Mr. Gates provides an update on his work in health, poverty, and education.

Online Review Skewing

If a system is gameable, humans will find a way to game it.

Starbucks’ Strategic Pivot

We are not invested in Starbucks (and are not actively considering it), but find the recent announcement that the chain will be serving beer, wine and premium food offerings in select locations notable. It will be interesting to see whether this experiment improves traffic and builds on Starbucks’ reputation as a gathering place, or instead undermines its carefully nurtured ethos.

The Next Digital Frontier: Textbooks

We believe we are just at the cusp of rethinking the traditional definitions of lectures and textbooks. They should be more integrated and accessible to each other or perhaps indistinguishable eventually. Wikipedia, YouTube, the finest lecturers, graphic artists, animators, filmmakers, writers, software designers, and others will all have a role to play, and the outcome could be a radically better and cheaper way to educate than the current system.

'System D' Entrepreneurship

This Wired Q&A with journalist Robert Neuwirth explores what he calls System D: the world’s informal/black market/underground economy that is largely untaxed, unlicensed, and unregulated. He argues that both its size and importance are enormous.

The Invasion of Vacuousness

Dan Pallotta makes a case against the increasing use of business jargon. We agree with him.

The Behavior of Crowds

Two scientists at the Max Planck Institute in Berlin have been studying behavior influenced by probabilities, and their findings are particularly interesting when it comes to the dynamics of crowds.

When Supply Chains Break

Manufacturers have spent years building lean global supply chains, but have underestimated the resulting opportunity costs. Natural disasters are showing them just how delicate these networks really are.

A Hayekian View of the World

Hayek’s approach says: Let us pierce the veil of aggregates and look at the distortive effects on relative prices and relative output produced by boom-time credit expansions.

Spending Wisely (Psychologically Speaking) to Maximize Happiness

A new survey of research on money and happiness attempts to explain how the human mind is surprisingly poor at working out what will make us happy.

Myanmar Shows Signs of Real Change

In the wake of regime reform in Myanmar, change is taking place in the capital city of Yangon. The signs of middle-class life are becoming more evident throughout the area.

Sprint Launches New 3G/4G Mobile Broadband Plans

Wireless providers are buying and building today's equivalent of new textile looms. Providing data has a high fixed cost and a low marginal cost. We expect all of this to be good for consumers and bad for market participants.

Exports to Mars?

We are always amused by the attention given to decimal places in various macro-economic measures given the impossibility of their accuracy in the United States, much less in places like China.

Better Batteries

Battery technology has substantially lagged Moore's Law, and this deficiency has held back all sorts of applications from electric cars to tablets to solar panels.

HTML5 Gains Could Impact a Variety of Business Models

HTML5 technology is the fifth generation of the programming language that is a foundation of the Web. It updates the way elements like text, graphics, photos and animation work inside Web browsers, leading to results that are more like software programs than Web pages.

Housing Drop Threatens China Growth

It will be interesting to see if China's leadership can thread this housing needle, particularly with social pressures from both sides of the debate. History says that they will struggle to accomplish a soft landing if a bubble does in fact exist.

Siberians Share DNA with Extinct Human Species

An interesting article posted this week in The Telegraph discussed how man’s ancestors mated with Neanderthals and other related hominids during human evolution.

Accounting Obfuscation: Clouding the Real Economics

We are constantly reminded how critical it is to understand the limitations inherent in financial accounting and the risks that lurk behind the ways individual companies are applying the rules.

Brand Consciousness in Africa

Africa is an emerging market for status brands. Because per capita income is still low, marketers have to focus on high income earners while also keeping some products (and their price points) accessible for those with more average income.

Bayes’ Theorem in Action: Ongoing Applications

If you are not familiar with it, Bayes’ Theorem can be summarized in a simple, qualitative formula: “Initial Beliefs + Recent Objective Data = A New and Improved Belief.”

A Top 20 Pushes All-in for Online Education

The competitive dynamics and technology enablement of online education continue to take shape, with University of North Carolina’s Kenan-Flagler as the first top-20 U.S. business school to offer an online program that itself says is fully equivalent to and indistinct from its traditional, bricks-and-mortar M.B.A. degrees.

Reinventing Education Through Video

We are extremely intrigued by Sal Khan and the online Khan Academy he has created. In this video, he discusses how and why he created the series of educational videos offering complete curricula in math and other subjects.

The Power of Music Works To Adele's Benefit

Scientists study the effect of underlying patterns in music.

‘There’s No More Left to Cut’

Greece and its people are caught between a rock and a hard place. Through debt default/restructuring and austerity, the country is basically hitting the reset button by rolling back jobs, wages, and health and retirement benefits that were unsustainable. Operating with a margin of safety (in a government’s case, avoiding long-term spending that is beyond its means) prevents terrible outcomes in situations well beyond investing.

J.C. Penney's Overhaul

Former Apple retailing executive Ron Johnson, who recently took over as CEO of J.C. Penney, has launched an aggressive plan to completely change the way his department store does business. This strategy will differentiate it from many, if not most, of its competitors. We will follow this transformation closely to see which parts succeed and which parts fail.

Idea Generation & Productivity

How does one best balance the benefits that teams provide for idea generation with the advantages that privacy and solitude afford for productivity?

When Stress Is Good for You

A little stress is helpful for peak performance, but too much can literally shut down the brain.

A Fortunate Surprise in the Gulf of Mexico

Systems are frequently much more complicated than people typically assume on first glance. In this case, thank goodness. As investors, however, we try to be especially watchful of this psychological misjudgment.

The Declining Cost of Distribution

Edward Burns blogs about the opportunities that electronic distribution presents for artists. His personal example illustrates how the declining costs of distribution due to technology are going to accrue to the content creator at the expense of gatekeepers (while also leveling the financial playing field among artists).

Wal-Mart's Makeover

Fortune’s interview with Stephen Quinn, Wal-Mart’s Chief Marketing Officer, discusses a new approach to 'the customer' at the world’s largest retailer. We continue to be struck by the strength and quality of managers in Wal-Mart's organization.

The Day I Saw Van Gogh's Genius in a New Light

Kanzunori Asada reflects on his enlightening Van Gogh observation. Was Van Gogh partially colorblind?

Herd Mentality At Work

This is a funny video that illustrates how people are influenced by the behavior of those around them.

Open Social Unrest in China

In the letter from our 2011 annual report, we briefly discussed the past occurrences—and potential current risk—of social unrest in China. This article highlights a current case study of Chinese villagers reacting strongly to ongoing mistreatment by their local government.

Mandelbrot Leads to a Better Model?

It seems that we’re complete suckers for the illusion of certainty and the seeming unlikelihood of the unthinkable, even though financial and economic history is one long string of crises. This time always seems different, until it turns out not to be.

Dreams & Memory

Interesting theory/finding on a practical purpose for dreams.

(Physical) Doorways and Our Minds

We’ve all experienced it: The frustration of entering a room and forgetting what we were going to do. Or get. Or find.

Too Big to Fail Under Dodd-Frank: A Simulation

The happenings in the Eurozone increase the risk of a real-life exploration of the application of the Dodd-Frank rules on a collapsing bank. A simulation put together by The Economist raises some interesting questions.

Expecting the Unexpected

We enjoy studying Nathan Myhnold's thinking, and this column explores an idea that is an integral piece of our investment process.

The Evolving Customer Experience

eMarketer ran an article on particular in-store vs. online shopping habits that highlights some challenges and opportunities that retailers are facing as consumers use of the internet, particularly when enabled by a smartphone, continues to change how they shop.

Ongoing Pursuit of the Elusive Fountain of Youth

A recent study at the Mayo Clinic suggests there may be a way to slow down the aging process. With the research project in its very early stages there is no way to know where it may lead, but count us as interested observers given the potential impact that developments like this could have on medical care costs.

The Limitations of Expert Judgment: A Political Case Study

Experts have a poor understanding of uncertainty. Usually, this manifests itself in the form of overconfidence: experts underestimate the likelihood that their predictions might be wrong.

Tesco Innovates in Korea: Is Pricing Transparency an Unintended Consequence?

It will be interesting over time to watch how online shopping impacts everyday grocery shopping and how that changes the economic model (for example, capital expenditure levels and mix, labor costs, and advertising budgets) of the relevant retailers.

Chemistry's Cinderella Story

A true Cinderella story for a man who, due to his extensive research, chose to challenge a core assumption of science.

Another Look at Retail in China

We couldn’t resist sharing this story about an entire fake Apple store in China. We are not shocked, but it is still incredible.

Inside Look at Commerce in China

We continue to look for investment opportunities in China, but remain very careful because of our ongoing concerns around rule of law and property rights (which makes it much harder to reliably avoid permanent impairments of capital, in line with our investment philosophy).

Technology’s Impact on Education and Learning (Yes, these are separate things!)

In our past letters and blog entries on education driven topics, we have focused more on the Internet’s impact on how teachers organize content and how students then consume that content. In particular, we have noted how the Internet improves the learning process through the deliverability and wider-spread availability of content.

Where Are Households in the Delevering Cycle?

Anyone following the degree of US household leverage could see that the trend was unsustainable and housing prices were a bubble. Accepted wisdom holds that the key to turning around an economy in a recession is to get consumers borrowing and consuming again. While that is certainly true in the short-run, we prefer equity financing in the long-run and do not believe that nations get rich from ever-increasing leverage.

Matt Mullenweg on Creative Destruction

This quote from Matt Mullenweg illustrates the ‘creative destruction’ phenomenon that is at the heart of a free market/capitalist system.

St. Petersburg Paradox

Probability and statistics were not necessary to evolution, and we find the human shortcut answer to many questions can vary widely from the correct mathematical answer. This difference can lead to a variety of bad decisions and inefficiencies in the market. So we try to focus on and be very aware of these problems in the hopes of doing a little better than average when they arise in real world investing.

China’s Connectivity Revolution

The rapid expansion of China’s Internet community portends significant cultural, economic, and political changes, all of which will likely complicate central planning efforts.

Showdown Over 'Showrooming'

The rise of price transparency in retail is occurring too fast for some traditional retailers to adequately prepare and react. Target is using its size and clout to make an interesting appeal to vendors in its supply chain. Programs like “exclusive” products/SKUs are good ideas, but they won't be able to resist the coming tide.

I Err, Therefore I Am

“Fallor ergo sum.” St. Augustine’s memorable quote translates to “I err, therefore I am.” This TED talk by Kathryn Schulz, a self-proclaimed "Wrongologist,” finds inspiration in this idea of not just admitting, but rather embracing, our unavoidable fallibility.

A Gut Check for Many Ailments

The complexity of the human body continues to challenge scientists. We expect this reality to endure.

Thoughts on Retailing

This post on Motley Fool is well worth a study if you are interested in retail.

Online Viewing Surpasses Estimates

We have no opinion on Netflix as an investment, but we are very interested in watching the destabilizing effects of on demand viewing on the traditionally delivered TV market. The world is still in the nascent stages of the destruction of great businesses by the Internet to the benefit of consumers.

MIT Leads the Charge in Online Learning

We suspect this is another important step forward in broadening access to higher education and simultaneously lowering the cost of distribution significantly. Consumers around the world will be much better off as a result of this dislocation over the next decade and beyond. MIT seems to be the world leader.

An Interview with Seth Klarman and Charlie Rose

As part of the Facing History and Ourselves New York Benefit Dinner, Charlie Rose interviewed Seth Klarman at Chelsea Piers. As usual, Klarman had interesting things to say.

The Culture of Chick-fil-A

Chick-fil-A consistently has one of the most outstanding customer service experiences of any business. They have been thoughtful about creating a culture that promotes this ethic and this video is one example of how they are creatively using media for internal communications.

U.K. Preps for the Potential End of the Euro

While Eurozone technocrats - with the help of central banks from across the world - continue to grasp for ways to save the Euro, British banks and regulators are preparing for a different outcome.

Not So Fast: India Reverses Its Multibrand Retailer Decision

India suspended its decision to allow overseas retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to open supermarkets, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s efforts to boost foreign investment and end a policy paralysis.

China's Bind: How to Avoid a Crash Landing

The confidence that had sustained China's property boom is evaporating, causing a double whammy for growth: fading demand overseas and at home at the same time.

The Case for Paying Attention

Can we be aware without actually paying attention?

Read Carefully

We saw this thanks to Jason Zweig’s Twitter account.

Huge Shortfalls in Pension Plans

Government pension plans certainly look like an impending disaster. Many governments have made promises that they will ultimately be unable to keep.

Paul Tudor Jones On His Newspaper Past and Potential Investing Future

Richard's former boss Paul Jones spoke about lessons learned from his newspaper days and a potential nearer-term opportunity.

Just Starting to Worry? May Already Be Too Late for Some…

The post-secondary education model continues to be challenged, with colleges and universities beginning to fully recognize the difficulties ahead (which have been further highlighted by the increasing public discourse about student loan debt and the potential problem it presents to graduates, particularly in tough job markets).

How Apple Plays the Pricing Game

Awesome article from Bloomberg Business Week on how Apple uses decoys, anchoring, and obscurity to make you think those shiny aluminum toys are a great deal.

Coke Imports Offering Strategy from Mexican Bottlers

Coke's push in the United States to have more product size offerings at various price points is something that bottlers have been doing for quite a while in Latin America.

From Fortune’s Archive: Value Investing Standing the Test of Time and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

This is an ‘oldie but goldie’ article on value investing from Fortune that was published in 1995. In many ways, it harkens back to Warren Buffett’s article entitled “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville” that was published in 1984...

The Digital Education Revolution

As we discussed in the Annual Report dated September 30, 2010, the Internet is transforming the public education system and we will not know the extent of this for years to come.

China’s Diminishing Labor Cost Advantage

China’s labor cost advantage continues to deteriorate against other more-developed, low-cost production regions like Mexico. As the wage gap narrows, other factors become more relevant in the procurement and plant location decision-making process for businesses focused on manufacturing.

The Evolution of Search

Search is still in in its infancy, and lots of innovation will come over the next couple of decades. Google might be the best situated to lead this innovation, but we feel that most people are more confident in the company's "moat" than probability warrants. This article about Google's Knowledge Graph gives some indication about where search can go.

Buffett Ranks Investments

Warren Buffett makes his case for long-term equity investing and the right way to think about risk. We share the same biases.

Made Better in Japan

Driven by a consumer culture that prizes excellence, the Japanese have begun creating some of the finest American denim, French cuisine, and Italian espresso in the world. As captured by the various vignettes in this story, this specialization in foreign wares marks an interesting twist for a country known for its pride in tradition (and at times accused of insularity).

Living in a QE World

We almost always comprehend data better in a graphical form. These charts display the actions of the various central banks in a way that easily shows the magnitude of their interventions.

The General-Purpose Computing “Storm”

Without weighing in on the ethics involved, we continue to believe that the low costs (money, time, trouble, etc.) of piracy will dramatically reduce profits for a variety of industries. The record industry is just the beginning. Books, movies, higher education, and many more will be radically changed over the coming decades. Cory Doctorow gives some good explanations as to why trying to prevent this piracy will be so difficult.

Financial Modelers' Manifesto

We have recently explored a glaring shortcoming of many current financial models: their inability to appropriately account for the frequency of "outliers." In their Financial Modelers' Manifesto, Emanuel Derman and Paul Wilmott take a step back from this particular focus and explore financial modeling from a broader, more holistic perspective. Their takeaways are insightful, and we think they are spot on.

Travel the World Without Leaving Your Desk

Photographer Kien Lam quit his job, packed a bag, grabbed his camera, and traveled the world. This video captures what he saw in 17 countries over 343 days.

Thermodynamics at Work

The debate rages on in the diet industry about the best way to control weight. Fads come and go, but – this study maintains – the key idea behind maintaining a healthy weight is basic and well-established: balance calories consumed against calories expended.

The Real Legacy of Nelson Mandela

Mandela continues to be an exemplary statesman for South Africa and the rest of the African continent.

The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.

Update on CERN and Einstein

We recently wrote about the Physics-rattling finding at CERN on the Swiss/French border. Neutrinos that were sent 450 miles through the earth appeared to travel faster than the speed of light, which would invalidate Einstein’s Theory of Relativity. Whether this actually happened or was some measurement error is an ongoing topic of debate, which is likely to continue for awhile.

“Amazon” Town: Modern-Day Migrant Workers

In tougher economic times, people are finding creative ways to earn a living.

Whoops!: Realtors Have Been Overcounting Home Sales

Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

Energetic Consequences of Food Processing

A new study indicates that cooking substantially increases the energy gained from meat, leading to elevations in body mass that are not attributable to differences in food intake or activity levels.

India Paves Way for Retailers

For the first time the Indian government is allowing overseas companies to own as much as 51 percent of retailers selling more than one brand.

Banks Build Contingency for Euro Breakup

European leaders continue to indicate there’s no reason to prepare for the unthinkable: the breakup of the euro zone. But some big banks are no longer so sure.

Latin America's Expanding Middle Class

Latin America’s middle class is steadily growing, while the poorest class is diminishing. The story of Peru’s largest apparel maker, Topitop, perfectly illustrates this trend.

Burgers, Beers and Billions

An interesting article in the November issue of the Bloomberg Markets magazine touches on a variety of topics of interest, including branding, management styles and approaches, and international business.

Russia’s Business Environment: Tread Carefully

This ongoing court battle in Russia is an enthralling, complex story.

Minding the Boundaries of a Circle of Competence

This story on Morgan Stanley’s farming venture on the steppes of Ukraine is an instructive example of what can happen when investors step outside the boundaries of their circle of competence.

A New Luxury Skyscraper Towers Over the Chinese Countryside

A new supertower will be opened this weekend in the Chinese village Huaxi, a communist model community with a registered population of just 2,000 “farmers.”

Grant on "Economic Genius"

Jim Grant has an interesting take on Sylvia Nasar’s new book, "Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius."

The Importance of a Competitive Moat

The first mover advantage by itself is rarely enough to protect market share, margins, etc.). It’ll be interesting to watch this new industry come of age.

Growth in Middle Africa

According to the International Monetary Fund, Sub-Saharan Africa will be the fastest-growing region in the world, after developing Asia, this year and in 2012.